Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
